Monday, November 4, 2024

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  The presidential election is tomorrow.

  
  


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  How to manage stress and maintain perspective on election night in one sentence: Surround yourself with supportive people; set realistic expectations for results; mentally prepare for any outcome; accept uncertainty and lack of control; know the possibility of significant polling error; limit social media and news refreshes; remind yourself of past resilience; focus on the bigger picture beyond this election; and have a plan for post-election activities that bring you joy.

  
  


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  📈 Polling Vibes.

  
  


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  Harris +1.0 points (New York Times)
  
  Harris +1.1 points (FiveThirtyEight)
  
  Harris +0.8 points (Nate Silver)
  
  Harris +1.0 points (The Economist)
  
  Tied (RealClearPolitics)
  
  Harris +1.4 points (Split Ticket)

  
  


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  🔮 Forecasting Vibes.

  
  


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  Trump wins 52 times out of 100. Harris wins 48 times out of 100. (FiveThirtyEight)
  
  Trump wins 50 times out of 100. Harris wins 49 times out of 100. (Nate Silver)
  
  Harris wins 50 times out of 100. Trump wins 50 times out of 100. (The Economist)
  
  Harris wins 50 times out of 100. Trump wins 49 times out of 100. (JHK Forecasts)
  
  Harris wins 53 times out of 100. Trump wins 47 times out of 100. (Split Ticket)
  
  Trump wins 51 times out of 100. Harris wins 49 times out of 100. (270toWin)
  
  Trump wins 53 times out of 100. Harris wins 47 times out of 100. (The Hill)
  
  Harris wins 51 times out of 100. Trump wins 49 times out of 100. (Metaculus)
  
  Trump wins 55 times out of 100. Harris wins 44 times out of 100. (Election Betting Odds)

  
  


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  Editor’s note: Forecasts are probabilities, not certainties. They reflect the current vibes, not the final result.

  
  


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  So, can we trust the polls? “Recent changes add up to a case for cautious optimism on better accuracy, but that’s far from a guarantee.” (New York Times)

  
  


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  The early vote doesn’t reliably predict results. “4 reasons why you’re better off ignoring it.” (Silver Bulletin)

  
  


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  When polls close in battleground states on Election Day. (WTF Just Happened Today? for more news and headlines, brought to you by Matt Kiser. The WTFJHT Podcast is narrated and produced by Joe Amditis.